Sunday, 10 July 2016

Numerals in Koro Language - language of Ingenious People

Science and culture, 82(5-6) 189-193, 2016
Numerals in Koro Language - language of Ingenious People
Narayan Ch Ghosh*
ABSTRACT
The day when homosepiens invented language jumped a long step in its way to future progress and as the term progress is a continuous changing process language; a structure of progress, cannot be static. Structural changes of languages generating momentum for further changes; and therefore languages are taking new shapes. Contributions in these changes in Society and in language itself are multidimensional. Here author have tried to look to Koro language, a language of India's remote northeast corner that have been identified recently and completely new to science for recasting words use to write Bengali numerals.

INTRODUCTION : Invention to set fire, wheel was the cause of development of humankind. Most outstanding and rapidly evolving development of mankind is undoubtedly the Computer and using computer now man do many thing more accurately, precisely and quickly. With advancement of science and technology life style is rapidly changing. Due to rapid progress of life activities new complex phenomanea evolves and or identified. Zadeh, father of Fuzzy Set, wrote : ‘As the complexity of a system increases, our ability to make precise and yet significant statements about its behavior diminishes until a threshold is reached beyond which  precision and significance (or relevance) become almost mutually exclusive characteristics.’ Existence and progress of homosepiens depends on in Photograph by Chris Rainier, National Geographic[1]    continuous  adoption changed characteristics of the society, to be compatible with scientific     phenomanea that are upgrading with time changing structure and superstructure of the society each and every moment as well as concepts itself. In continuously changing society language,  communicating device of human being, cannot static. Need and changes due to   Photograph by Chris Rainier, National Geographic    scientific development its structure and character is also changing. Due to invention of computer speed of has been increased tremendously. Therefore life speed is now an important factor for changing modulation of language, formation of word, writing sentences in shorter form more precisely and accurately. As mathematics is nothing but a language these are true for mathematics also. If one goes through the change of numeral scripts it is easy for him to visualise how its shapes are been changed with advancement of society[2].
In view of the stated facts one has to look to the way of expression of numeral system in Bengali or to some extend Indian languages. Perhaps it is essential to think for upgradation of existing methods of expression of numeral system in those languages. It is most urgent to make existing system compatible
*Dr. Narayan Ch Ghosh, Professor in Mathematics, having thirty seven years teaching and research experience in India and abroad. Email : ghosnarayan@gmail.com, ghoshnc@rediffmail.com, Phone : 91 033 26803563, 26802365, Mobile : 91 9831100325, 9433870670
with newly invented high speed computer. To understand this easily a chronological picture of the development of digit is given below. It is necessary for learning and memorising Bengali numeral system in shorter form, more simple and effective manner. For discussion one may look to a newly discovered language, in urbanised sense, is indigenous language.    
                                                             After van der Waerden, modified by Philip J. Davis[3]
A news was published in the Science Daily on Oct. 5, 2010 that Linguists reporting from a National Geographic expedition to India's remote northeast corner have identified a language completely new to science[3]. According to them the language, known as Koro, belongs to the Tibeto-Burman language family, a group of some 400 languages that includes Tibetan and Burmese, the linguists said. Although some 150 Tibeto-Burman languages are spoken in India alone, the expedition team has been unable to identify any language closely related to Koro, so distinct is it from the others in the family[4].
Science Daily reported that the expedition was part of National Geographic's Enduring Voices project (http://on.natgeo.com/dDyLox), led by National Geographic Fellows Gregory Anderson, director of the Living Tongues Institute for Endangered Languages, and K. David Harrison an associate professor of linguistics at Swarthmore College. Before the expedition, the team had targeted the remote Arunachal Pradesh state in northeastern India as one of its "Language Hotspots" -- a place on the world map that hosts a rich diversity of languages, many are unwritten, are little studied or documented.
"On a scientist's tally sheet, Koro adds just one entry to the list of 6,909 languages worldwide…. But Koro's contribution is much greater than that tiny fraction would suggest," Harrison writes in "The Last Speakers," newly published by National Geographic Books. "Koro brings an entirely different perspective, history, mythology, technology and grammar to what was known before." A scientific paper on the newly identified language published in volume 71 of the journal Indian Linguistics[5].
The revelation of the new language was bittersweet: Koro is highly endangered. Only about 800 people are believed to speak it -- few under age 20 -- and the language has not been written down. "We were finding something that was making its exit, was on its way out," Anderson said. "And if we had waited 10 years to make the trip, we might not have come across close to the number of speakers we found."
Arunachal Pradesh is considered a "black hole" on the linguistic map: Because a special permit is required to enter the region, few linguists have worked there, and no one has drawn up a reliable list of languages spoken there, their locations or numbers of speakers. The Enduring Voices team began its search in Arunachal Pradesh in 2008 for two poorly known languages -- Aka and Miji -- known to be spoken in one small district. The team, which included Indian linguist Ganesh Murmu of Ranchi University, climbed steep hillsides to reach speakers' villages, going door-to-door among the bamboo houses that sit on stilts; villagers eke out livings raising pigs and cultivating rice and barley. The investigators listened to and recorded the vocabularies of these poorly known tongues, Harrison, Anderson and Murmu began to detect a surprise third language, one locally known as Koro. None of the scientific literature they had studied had reported the existence of a third and completely distinct language in the region -- it's not listed in standard international registries of languages or even in Indian language surveys or censuses. Harrison said, "We didn't have to get far on our word list to realize it was extremely different in every possible way"[6].
The team crossed a rushing mountain river by bamboo raft to reach the tiniest Koro village. They sat on shaded verandas of the stilt-supported houses, making recordings as people shared their vocabularies and life stories in the hidden language of Koro. Thousands of words were captured -- the first known time that Koro was recorded as its own distinct language, Harrison said.
Koro shaped up as distinct from the region's other languages on many levels, the linguists said. Its inventory of sounds was completely different, and so was the way sounds combine to form words. Words also are built differently in Koro, as are sentences. As for example, the Aka word for "mountain" is "phù" while the Koro word is "nggõ." Aka speakers call a pig a "vo" while to Koro speakers, a pig is a "lele." "Koro could hardly sound more different from Aka," Harrison writes in "The Last Speakers." Anderson and Harrison said that Aka is the traditional language of the region's historic slave traders; they hypothesize that Koro may have sprung from the slaves, though they say more study is needed to determine precise origins.

Languages are dying around the world; one blinks out about every two weeks. Linguists consider about half of the world's nearly 7,000 tongues are endangered, the victims of cultural changes, ethnic shame, government repression and other factors[6].

National Geographic's Enduring Voices project works to identify language hotspots, document vanishing languages and cultures, and assist with language revitalization.

What is the value to the speakers of identifying the world's "hidden" languages? "Part of the uniqueness of very small languages is that their speakers may feel a sense of ownership over them," Harrison writes in "The Last Speakers." "In the case of Koro, even though they seem to be gradually giving up their language, it remains the most powerful trait that identifies them as a distinct people. Without it, they are merely part of a larger group within India's population of a billion-plus."

Counting System in Koro Language
Not all languages have numeral systems for counting. Specifically, there is not much need for numeral systems among hunter-gatherers who do not engage in commerce. Many languages around the world have no numerals above two to four. Several languages from the Amazon have been independently reported to have no specific number words other than 'one'. These include Nadëb, pre-contact Mocoví and PilagáCulina and pre-contact  Jarawara,  Jabutí,  Canela-Krahô,  Botocudo (Krenák)Chiquitano, the Campa languagesArabela, and Achuar. Some languages of Australia, such as Warlpiri, do not have words for quantities above two, as did many Khoisan languages at the time of European contact. Such languages do not have a word class of 'numeral'.
Most languages with both numerals and counting use base 8, 10, 12, or 20. Base 10 appears to come from counting one's fingers, base 20 from the fingers and toes, base 8 from counting the spaces between the fingers (attested in California), and base 12 from counting the knuckles (3 each for the four fingers). For very large (and very small) numbers, traditional systems have been superseded by the use of scientific notation and the system of SI prefixes. Traditional systems continue to be used in everyday life[7].
Many languages of Melanesia have (or once had) counting systems based on parts of the body which do not have a numeric base; there are (or were) no numerals, but rather nouns for relevant parts of the body—or simply pointing to the relevant spots—were used for quantities. For example, 1–4 may be the fingers, 5 'thumb', 6 'wrist', 7 'elbow', 8 'shoulder', etc., across the body and down the other arm, so that the opposite pinkie represents a number between 17 (Torres Islands) to 23 (Eleman). For numbers beyond this, the torso, legs and toes may be used, or one might count back up the other arm and back down the first, depending on the people.

Some Austronesian and Melanesian ethnic groups, some Sulawesi and some Papua New Guineans, count with the base number four, using the term asu and aso, the word for dog, as the ubiquitous village dog has four legs. This is argued by anthropologists to be also based on early humans noting the human and animal shared body feature of two arms and two legs as well as its ease in simple arithmetic and counting. As an example of the system's ease a realistic scenario could include a farmer returning from the market with fifty asu heads of pig (200), less 30 asu (120) of pig bartered for 10 asu (40) of goats noting his new pig count total as twenty asu: 80 pigs remaining. The system has a correlation to the dozen counting system and is still in common use in these areas as a natural and easy method of simple arithmetic.

It is known that Quinary systems are based on the number 5. It is almost certain the quinary system developed from counting by fingers (five fingers per hand). An example are the Epi languages of Vanuatu, where 5 is luna 'hand', 10 lua-luna 'two hand', 15 tolu-luna 'three hand', etc. 11 is then lua-luna tai 'two-hand one', and 17 tolu-luna lua 'three-hand two'. 5 is a common auxiliary base, or sub-base, where 6 is 'five and one', 7 'five and two', etc. Aztec was a vigesimal (base-20) system with sub-base 5.

Kanum is a rare example of a language with base 6. The Sko languages, however, are base-24 with a subbase of 6. On the other hand Octal counting systems are based on the number 8. It is used in the Yuki language of California and in the Pamean languages of Mexico, because the Yuki and Pame keep count by using the four spaces between their fingers rather than the fingers themselves.

A majority of traditional number systems are decimal. This dates back at least to the ancient Indians then Egyptians, who used a wholly decimal system. Anthropologists hypothesize this may be due to humans having five digits per hand, ten in total. There are many regional variations including: i. Western system: based on thousands, with variants, ii. Indian system: crorelakh iii. East Asian system: based on ten-thousands.

There is Duodecimal systems are based on 12. These include: Chepang language of Nepal, Mahl language of Minicoy Island in India, Nigerian Middle Belt areas such as JanjiKahugu and the Nimbia dialect of Gwandara, Melanesia, reconstructed proto-Benue–Congo.

Duodecimal numeric systems have some practical advantages over decimal. It is much easier to divide the base digit twelve (which is a highly composite number) by many important divisors in market and trade settings, such as the numbers 234 and 6.

Because of several measurements based on twelve, many Western languages have words for base-twelve units such as dozengross and great gross, which allow for rudimentary duodecimal nomenclature, such as "two gross six dozen" for 360. Ancient Romans used a decimal system for integers, but switched to duodecimal for fractions, and correspondingly Latin developed a rich vocabulary for duodecimal-based fractions. A notable fictional duodecimal system was that of J. R. R. Tolkien's Elvish languages, which used duodecimal as well as decimal.

Vigesimal numbers use the number 20 as the base number for counting. Anthropologists are convinced the system originated from digit counting, as did bases five and ten, twenty being the number of human fingers and toes combined. The system is in widespread use across the world. Some include the classical Mesoamerican cultures, still in use today in the modern indigenous languages of their descendants, namely the Nahuatl and Mayan languages. A modern national language which uses a full vigesimal system is Dzongkha in Bhutan.

Partial vigesimal systems are found in some European languages : BasqueCeltic languagesFrench (from Celtic), Danish, and Georgian. In these languages the systems are vigesimal up to 99, then decimal from 100 up. That is, 140 is 'one hundred two score', not *seven score, and there is no numeral for 400.
The term score originates from tally sticks, and is perhaps a remnant of Celtic vigesimal counting. It was
widely used to learn the pre-decimal British currency in this idiom: "a dozen pence and a score of bob", referring to the 20 shillings in a pound. For Americans the term is most known from the opening of the Gettysburg Address"Four score and seven years ago, our forefathers...".
                      
The Sko languages have a base-24 system with a subbase of 6. Ngiti has base 32.
Ekari has a base-60 system. Sumeria had a base-60 system with a decimal subbase (perhaps aconflation of the decimal and a duodecimal systems of its constituent peoples), which was the origin of the numbering of modern degrees, minutes, and seconds. Supyire is said to have a base-80 system; it counts in twenties (with    5 and 10 as subbases) up to 80, then by eighties up to 400, and then by 400s (great scores).
kàmpwóò
ŋ̀kwuu
sicyɛɛ
béé-tàànre
kɛ́
báár-ìcyɛ̀ɛ̀rè
fourhundred
eighty
four
and
twenty-three
and
ten
and
five-four
799 [i.e. 400 + (4 x 80) + (3 x 20) + {10 + (5 + 4)}]’
Ekari has a base-60 system. Sumeria had a base-60 system with a decimal subbase (perhaps a conflation of the decimal and a duodecimal systems of its constituent peoples), which was the origin of the numbering of modern degrees, minutes, and seconds. Supyire is said to have a base-80 system; it counts in twenties (with    5 and 10 as subbases) up to 80, then by eighties up to 400, and then by 400s (great scores).

Larger numerals
English has derived numerals for multiples of its base (fifty, sixty, etc), and some languages have simplex numerals for these, or even for numbers between the multiples of its base. Balinese, for example, currently has a decimal system, with words for 10, 100, and 1000, but has additional simplex numerals for 25 (with a second word for 25 only found in a compound for 75), 35, 45, 50, 150, 175, 200 (with a second found in a compound for 1200), 400, 900, and 1600. In Hindustani, the numerals between 10 and 100 have become conflated to the extent that they need to be learned independently.

In many languages, numerals up to the base are a distinct part of speech, while the words for powers of the base belong to one of the other word classes. In English, these higher words are hundred 10², thousand 10³, million just 106, and higher powers of a thousand (short scale) or of a million (long scale—see names of large numbers). These words cannot modify a noun without being preceded by an article or numeral, and so are nouns.

In East Asia, the higher units are hundred, thousand, myriad 104, and powers of myriad. In India, they are hundred, thousand, lakh 105,crore 107, and so on. The Mesoamerican system, still used to some extent in Mayan languages, was based on powers of 20: bak’ 400 (20²), pik 8000 (20³), kalab 160,000 (204), etc.
Numerals in Koro Language*
1. ecé
21.  niflá yalí ecé
2. kene / kine/
22.  niflá yalí kene
3. kalá
23.  niflá yalí kalá
4. koblé / kople
24.  niflá yalí koblé
5. plé
25.  niflá yalí plé
6. sufí /sufì/
26.  niflá yalí sufi
7. rõ
27.  niflá yalí rõ
8. ralá /ràla/
28.  niflá yalí ralá
9. ɡayé / ɡaje /
29.  niflá yalí ɡayé
10. fãlá
30.  kaláflá
11. fãlá yalí ecé
40.  kobléflá
12. fãlá yalí kene
50.  pléflá
13. fãlá yalí kalá
60.  sufíflá
14. fãlá yalí koblé
70.  rõflá
15. fãlá yalí plé
80.  raláflá
16. fãlá yalí sufi
90.  ɡayéflá
17. fãlá yalí rõ
100. palá
18. fãlá yalí ralá
200.
19. fãlá yalí ɡayé
1000. paláfélá ( 100 x 10)
20. niflá
2000.  
*Linguist providing data and date : Dr. Kedutso Kapfo, March 6, 2012
Central Institute of Indian Languages, Manasagangori, Mysore. Koro is a newly discovered language spoken by a small community in Arunachal Pradesh of North-East India. This language is first discovered by me in 2005[7].

Conclusion :
From above discussion it is clear, numeral system in Koro language is decimal system. Though it is a language of indigenous people living in most remote areas in India Koro language structure is scientific. Most interesting is in Bengali language to learn numerals from one to hundred number one has to know minimum thirty seven separate words, on the other hand in Koro language, a language of India's remote northeast corner Arunachal Pradesh considered a "black hole" on the linguistic map, has to learn only nineteen words to express the same in Bengali. In some other Indian Language for same learning one has to know more words. Perhaps having seen this mathematics teachers in Bengal or in some other parts in India may be inspired to the find way for minmising the number of words to teach number systems to their child like students in easy way[8]. Linguists may also think to develop idea for minimising number of words for learning number system in Bengali.
References
1.      Chris Rainier   : Photograph published in National Geographic on October 5, 2010
2.      Ghosh, N. C. : A New Look to Mathematics Education. Journal of Centre for Pedagogical Studies in Mathematics, Vol. 31, 2011.
3.      Philip J. Davis : Large Numbers and Their Arithmetic. The Lore of Large Numbers. New Mathematical Library. The L.W. Singer Company, 1961
4.      Morrison, Dan  : Hidden' Language Found in Remote Indian Tribe. National Geographic Daily News. 2010
5.      Lewis, M. Paul (ed.) : Ethnologue: Languages of the World, Sixteenth edition. Dallas, TX: SIL International, Hruso. 2009
6.      Post, Mark W. and Roger Blench : Siangic: A new language phylum in North East India, 6th International Conference of the North East India Linguistics Society, Tezpur University, Assam, India, Jan 31 – Feb 2. 2011
7.      Schmid, Randolph E. : Undocumented language found hidden in India. Associated Press. 5 October 2010,
8.      Ghosh, N. C. : Numerals in Koro. Science India, Vol. 18, No.7 p 27-32, 2015





Thursday, 9 June 2016

IMPACT OF EL NIÑO ON INDIA’S AGRARIAN ECONOMY

Science India, Vol. 18, No.11        
Impact of El Niño on India’s agrarian economy

N.C. Ghosh

A B S T R A C T
More than two thousand died due heat waves blowing in different parts of India. Scientists believe that one of the main reasons for these heat waves is the occurrence of El Nino which occurs in the Pacific coast of South America and adversely affects the Indian monsoon. El Nino results in less rain and corresponding higher temperatures. This view is in accordance with the findings of the fifth assessment report of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. Noted assessment report has warned that the last three decades have been the warmest since scientists started keeping records since 1850. Here author has discussed about El Nino and its effect with scientific analysis.

Introduction
The fifth assessment report of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the last three decades have been the warmest. The reason for these rising temperatures is primarily because carbon dioxide concentrations have increased 40 per cent since pre-industrial times. The result is that both the atmosphere and the oceans are going up. Glacial melting and increasing deforestation is also adversely impact weather cycles.
The report states that the total amount of carbon human beings emit should not exceed 800 gigatons, but by 2011, 531 gigatons had already been emitted.
The effects of this overdose are for everyone to see -- a relentless heating up of the atmosphere with sea levels increasingly flooding coastal plains.
The projections of this IPCC report both mid-term (2045 to 2065) and long-term (2081 to 2100) for South Asia and specifically for India can hardly be considered favourable. The report has warned that north and west India will face an increase in temperatures while south India will face an increase in tropical nights. Maximum temperatures during the day are expected to increase between 4 and 5 degrees C while the number of tropical nights (the number of 24-hour days above 20 degrees C) are projected to increase from between 0 to 80 days largely in south India.
Scientists at the Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, associated closely with the drafting of this report, warn that rising temperatures will adversely impact monsoons. So on one hand, while rainfall is expected to increase by 10 per cent between December to February and up to 50 per cent between September and November, the overall monsoon winds are likely to weaken. 'While monsoon winds are likely to weaken,' the report states, 'monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify due to increase in atmospheric moisture... Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not change much. Monsoon retreat dates are likely be delayed, resulting in the lengthening in the monsoon season in many regions.'
Here it is essential to note that higher rainfall will not mean an extension of rainy days. Rather, it will see an increase in extreme weather events as happened during the torrential rainfall that hit Uttarakhand in June 2013 and the heavy rainfall that caused flooding of the Jhelum river in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 causing destruction in a large part of the capital city of Srinagar.
Apprehensive rapid rate of glacial melt, the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development warned that 54,000 glaciers in the Himalayas could create glacial lakes which would rupture their banks and destroy the surrounding infrastructure and agriculture. The bursting of the glacial lake in Kedarnath devastation in Uttarakhand. A similar lake has already been created by landslides on the Kali Gandaki river in Myagdi in Nepal following the massive earthquake in Kathmandu on May ‘15. If the lake breaches, it would result in disastrous downstream flooding which would extend up to several cities in Bihar.
Now it is a hard question how increasing urbanisation will handle future climate problems, especially since cities produce three quarters of greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption.
While Government of India is pushing for smart cities, their environmental consequences of this large scale urbanisation must be worked out immediately.
   The occurrence of another El Nino phenomenon in 2015 does not portend well for the country as heat wave conditions can continue up to September. A bad monsoon would mean one more year of poor rains and see a decline in food production. More serious is the viewpoint of several scientists who believe that warnings on heat wave conditions should be included as part of the disaster management plans being prepared by the National Disaster Management Authority both at the central and state levels. So not only to know about El Nano, but be aware of its effect and for developing Disaster Management programe a thorough study of El Nano is most essential.
 Every two to seven years, warmer than normal ocean currents, dubbed El Nino -- the Christ Child – says by Peruvian fishermen, is a weather system, appear in the Pacific Ocean near the coasts of Peru and neighboring countries at about Christmas time. This shift is a part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which also includes the oscillation of many other meteorological parameters. The easterly trade winds are the main drivers of ENSO. They pile very warm waters along the western Pacific, but when they subside, the warm waters spread to the rest of the Pacific causing the general warming of the El Nino years. El Nino alternate with the La Niña when the currents are cooler than normal.
 El Niño, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is a weather system lasts for about 12 months on an average. During El Niño the warming of sea surface temperatures take place, affecting wind patterns and thus possibly triggering both floods and droughts in different parts of the world.  
 During La Niña, just the opposite of El Niño, less heating leads to colder sea waters off western South America coast, thus making it a high pressure zone; which pushes the moist sea winds towards the Indian Ocean increasing chances of normal or excessive rainfall in the Indian sub-continent.
 The phenomenon El Niño affects rainfall in India during Monsoon. Due to more heating, warm waters off eastern coast of South America increase the sea surface temperatures above normal by 0.5oC and leads to diversion of flow of moist winds from the Indian Ocean towards the eastern coast of South America. This change in wind pattern reduces the amount of rainfall in the Indian sub-continent. El Nino is a temporary warming in the ocean water temperatures in the Pacific off the coast of South America. The warming changes weather patterns, bringing more rains to some areas and less to others when it is active. In the case of India, El Nino can lead to drier weather.
 As El Niño and the Indian summer Monsoon are inversely related the most prominent droughts in India – six of them - since 1871 have been El Niño droughts, including the recent ones in 2002 and 2009. It is, however, important to note that not all El Niño years lead to drought in India. For instance, 1997-98 was a strong El Niño year but that did not cause drought in India. On the other hand, a moderate El Niño in 2002 resulted in one of the worst droughts in India.
 According to Historical data of 126 years (1880-2005), about 90% of all evolving El Niño years have lead to below normal rainfall and 65% of evolving El Niño years have brought droughts. However, one thing is clear that El Niño years do affect the weather in India in terms of Monsoon rain. During this time, the rainfall is generally below normal, which has its bearing on crop production.
 Current status of El Nino is probably now ranging between 60-65per cent and most likely it is likely to push towards winter months- from October to December. There are so many scenarios. El Nino will not have a major impact on Indian monsoon. El Nino's peak impact will be in late winter by December. 
 According to experts factors as innocuous as the humble grain-carrying sack to the mighty El Nino could have a varying impact on grain production and delivery this year.
 Detailed presentations made at a recently-concluded 'Global Grain and Feed Forum' conference in Goa suggest that the occurrence of the El Nino phenomenon in June could to some extent rob India of its monsoon, but also note that poor quality sacks are also a significant fault-line in the grain-delivery chain, "leading to very high losses".
 Monsoons are winds caused by the temperature difference between a land mass and the adjacent ocean. Monsoons occur throughout the world -- parts of Africa, the Arabianpeninsula, Arizona, the neighboring regions of California and Mexico. But the Indian monsoon -- which besides India, also affects other regions of south and southeast Asia and Australia -- is the most monetarily important because of its profound influence on the economy of India and neighboring countries. It is directly linked to the ENSO phenomenon. In summer months, temperatures over much of India rise to as high as 110 degrees Fahrenheit while the Indian Ocean is much cooler. Consequently, the warm air over the land rises and cooler moisture-bearing air blows in from the sea, bringing heavy rains to the region.
 El Nino may trigger a downside in the production of soyabean and corn this year. India's projected soya production in the coming year could be anywhere between 10.2, 9.9 and 8.2 million tonnes in case of a weak, moderate or strong El Nino. In 2012-13 the country harvested a soyabean crop of 14.67 million tonnes. Similarly, the downside to corn production could be 23.1 to 22.5 million tonnes (going from) weak to moderate (impact) where as production was 25 million tonnes in the previous year. India last had experienced the phenomenon in 2009 and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has already predicted below par rainfall this year.
 "In six out of last eight El Nino summers, India had a below normal Indian Monsoon (countrywide average)".
http://images.skymetweather.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/monsoon-forecast-two1.jpg
Analysis by the India Meteorological Department shows that, of the 18 El Nino years between 1880 and 2006, twelve coincided with deficient or below-normal rainfall in India. This means, for a third of the time, there was no correlation, and that has resulted in some spectacularly wrong forecasts for the monsoon. More recent research aimed at finding a more robust correlation indicates that not all El Ninos cause drought, and only warming in the central Pacific correlates with drought in India while warming in the eastern Pacific means a normal monsoon.
During last February it was predicted that 2014 could be an El Niño year, which would trigger a poor Monsoon in India. And as we enter mid-April, these observations are turning out to be more accurate. According to a media report, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has suggested increase in chances of an El Niño weather by over 50%, while the Australian Meteorological Bureau has put it at over 70%. Though, this system will affect the weather worldwide, countries like India that are largely dependent on Monsoon rain will bear the maximum brunt of it.
In view of this here's a look into what is this phenomenon and how is it going to impact Monsoon in India.
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Occurrence
El Nino
Neutral
Neutral
La Nina
La Nina
El Nino
La Nina
La Nina
Mild
El Nino
Neutral

State
Drought
Normal
Normal
Excess
Above
 normal
Severe Drought
Normal
Normal
Below Normal
Above
Normal
Precipitation
-12%
+1%
+3%
+10%
+5%
-21%
0%
+4%
-8%
+6%
                
El Niño years directly impact India’s agrarian economy as their effect tends to lower the production of summer crops such as rice, sugarcane and oilseeds. This in return causes inflation to surge and lowers the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). India is the second largest producer of rice and wheat in the world. Following is a list of droughts taken place in India in last two centuries. Some of these have been an outcome of the El Niño phenomenon.
Period
Drought Years
Number of Drought
  1801-1830
1801, 1804, 1806, 1812, 1819, 1825
6
1831-1860
1832, 1833, 1837, 1853, 1860
5
1861-1890
1862, 1866, 1868, 1873, 1877, 1883
6
1891-1920
1891, 1897, 1899, 1901, 1904, 1905, 1907, 1911, 1918, 1920
10
 1921-1950
1939, 1941
2
1951-1980
1951, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1979
8
1981-2010
1982, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004, 2009
6
Monsoon rainfall remains worrying this year. June rainfall was among the worst in a century and the situation has not improved so far in July, though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) did not want to talk about a drought as it needs data for the entire season to reach such a conclusion. Some prospects of the monsoon strengthening in a week, particularly in the south, western coastal areas and central India are been observed. However, western India, where the rainfall deficit was 64per cent, including 92per cent in parts of Gujarat, remains a worry.
 Seasonal deficit of monsoon as of now was 43per cent. The deficit was more in central and western India. It was seen a low pressure likely to form in Bay of Bengal on July 12 and by July 13th it was to move north-west ward. It was expected that that would create favourable conditions for rains up to central India, southern peninsula and west coast. It was not going to fill deficiency in rainfall in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh and peninsular states up to Madhya Pradesh. However, in West India - Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and large parts of Gujarat particularly Saurashtra things were not very promising. So the question arises are India, at least portion of India, is heading towards a drought?
 Drought is a situation which is defined at a later stage. It's a diagnostic. At this stage none can comment on this except to talk in terms of rainfall deficit which are open data. How it further develops it is to see.
 There are many droughts- meteorological drought, agricultural, hydrological drought. If at the end of the season rain deficiency in a meteorological subdivision or a state is more than 25per cent then it is moderate drought and if it is more than 50per cent then severe drought. If in one week rain deficit is high no one can say it is a drought.
 Now the question is in the current situation, what preparation can the country make? What are the steps than need to be taken?
 Indian farmers depend on the monsoon for production of certain crops like cotton, sugarcane, rice and others. Delayed or late rains can alter harvests. Monsoon rains last several months and El Nino was expected to take effect around mid-to-late July and August, which comes at the height of the growing season. It’s at this time that these crops are pollinating and setting yields, so drier weather means the potential for lower yields.
 The monsoon is critical for India’s crop production and rainfall deficits can be very consequential, as it leads to lower production of especially summer crops and as a result lower GDP (gross domestic product) growth. As far as farmers are concerned they are being advised to choose for selecting late sown seed varieties. Also the varieties which require less water and early maturing are the buzz word. Indian farmers depend on the monsoon for production of certain crops like cotton, sugarcane, rice and others. Delayed or late rains can alter harvests. Monsoon rains last several months and El Nino effected monsoon around mid-to-late July and August, which comes at the height of the growing season as it was the time that crops are pollinating and setting yields, so drier weather means the potential for lower yields.
 The combination of a widening trade deficit and rising CPI inflation could force India’s central bank to tighten monetary policy. As a result, the economy might have a pronounced slowdown, as the tightening monetary policy comes on top of declines in farmers’ income as a result of production shortfalls. Indian farmers depend on the monsoon for production of certain crops like cotton, sugarcane, rice and others. Delayed or late rains can alter harvests. So considering present situation due to the El Niño phenomenon immediate measures need be taken by the Government to cover low production caused for adverse weather promoting persons associated with agriculture in favour of alternative production.
 In the mean time interest rate of bank has been reduced; and apprehension of further drastic reduction of bank interest has shaken broader section of people. From past experience one can easily predict low agricultural production due to climatic phenomena will have long term severe effect in Indian society.

                                                                                         

Monday, 6 June 2016

Professor N.C. GHOSH: 1.   N. C. ...







See article 'Highest Death but not Covered by
Laws'
in SCIENCE INDIA June 2016 Vol 19. No. 6 


Professor N.C. GHOSH: 1.   N. C. ...

Professor N.C. GHOSH: <!--[if !supportLists]-->1.   <!--[endif]-->N. C. ...: 1.    N. C. Ghosh , Pijush Basak , Abhijit Bhattacharya (2015) : Stability of a perfectly conducting viscoelastic fluid with continuous v...







Thursday, 28 January 2016

An article of mine named Anka Bhavanar Anka on Anka Bhavana Patrika by Kamal Majumder is been published in Sristir Ekosh Satak Patrika.

Tuesday, 22 September 2015

1.   N. C. Ghosh, Pijush Basak, Abhijit Bhattacharya (2015) : Stability of a perfectly conducting viscoelastic fluid with continuous viscosity & density stratification in presence of horizontal magnetic field. Soon it will be published in the Journal of Association of Engineers India.


2.   N. C. Ghosh (2015) : Some Aspects of Turbulence Flow Study. Will be published soon in the Indian Journal of Theoretical Physics – a journal of Institute of Theoretical Physics.
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M.A. in EDUCATION Course Curriculum (Syllabus) committee Department of Education Raiganj University, Raiganj, Uttar Dinajpur, West Bengal, India.