Science
India, Vol. 18, No.11
Impact of El
Niño on India’s agrarian economy
N.C. Ghosh
Email : ghoshnc@rediffmail.com
A B S T R A C T
More
than two thousand died due heat waves blowing in different parts of India.
Scientists believe that one of the main reasons for these heat waves is the
occurrence of El Nino which occurs in the Pacific coast of South America and
adversely affects the Indian monsoon. El Nino results in less rain and
corresponding higher temperatures. This view is in accordance with the findings
of the fifth assessment report of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change. Noted assessment report has warned that the last three decades have
been the warmest since scientists started keeping records since 1850. Here
author has discussed about El Nino and its effect with scientific analysis.
Introduction
The fifth assessment report
of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the
last three decades have been the warmest. The reason for these rising
temperatures is primarily because carbon dioxide concentrations have increased
40 per cent since pre-industrial times. The result is that both the atmosphere
and the oceans are going up. Glacial melting and increasing deforestation is
also adversely impact weather cycles.
The report states that the
total amount of carbon human beings emit should not exceed 800 gigatons, but by
2011, 531 gigatons had already been emitted.
The effects of this overdose
are for everyone to see -- a relentless heating up of the atmosphere with sea
levels increasingly flooding coastal plains.
The projections of this IPCC
report both mid-term (2045 to 2065) and long-term (2081 to 2100) for South Asia
and specifically for India can hardly be considered favourable. The report has
warned that north and west India will face an increase in temperatures while
south India will face an increase in tropical nights. Maximum temperatures
during the day are expected to increase between 4 and 5 degrees C while the
number of tropical nights (the number of 24-hour days above 20 degrees C) are
projected to increase from between 0 to 80 days largely in south India.
Scientists at the Institute of
Tropical Meteorology, Pune, associated closely with the drafting of this
report, warn that rising temperatures will adversely impact monsoons. So on one
hand, while rainfall is expected to increase by 10 per cent between December to
February and up to 50 per cent between September and November, the overall
monsoon winds are likely to weaken. 'While monsoon winds are likely to weaken,'
the report states, 'monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify due to
increase in atmospheric moisture... Monsoon onset dates are likely to become
earlier or not change much. Monsoon retreat dates are likely be delayed,
resulting in the lengthening in the monsoon season in many regions.'
Here it is essential to note that
higher rainfall will not mean an extension of rainy days. Rather, it will see
an increase in extreme weather events as happened during the torrential
rainfall that hit Uttarakhand in June 2013 and the heavy rainfall that caused
flooding of the Jhelum river in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 causing destruction
in a large part of the capital city of Srinagar.
Apprehensive rapid rate of
glacial melt, the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development warned that 54,000 glaciers in the Himalayas could create glacial
lakes which would rupture their banks and destroy the surrounding
infrastructure and agriculture. The bursting of the glacial lake in Kedarnath
devastation in Uttarakhand. A similar lake has already been created by
landslides on the Kali Gandaki river in Myagdi in Nepal following the massive
earthquake in Kathmandu on May ‘15. If the lake breaches, it would result in
disastrous downstream flooding which would extend up to several cities in
Bihar.
Now it is a hard question how increasing urbanisation will
handle future climate problems, especially since cities produce three quarters
of greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption.
While Government of India is
pushing for smart cities, their environmental consequences of this large scale
urbanisation must be worked out immediately.
The occurrence of another El Nino phenomenon in 2015 does not portend
well for the country as heat wave conditions can continue up to September. A
bad monsoon would mean one more year of poor rains and see a decline in food
production. More serious is the viewpoint of several scientists who believe
that warnings on heat wave conditions should be included as part of the
disaster management plans being prepared by the National Disaster Management
Authority both at the central and state levels. So not only to know about El
Nano, but be aware of its effect and for developing Disaster Management
programe a thorough study of El Nano is most essential.
Every two to seven years, warmer than normal
ocean currents, dubbed El Nino -- the Christ Child – says by Peruvian
fishermen, is a weather system, appear in the Pacific Ocean near the coasts of
Peru and neighboring countries at about Christmas time. This shift is a part of
the El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which also includes the oscillation
of many other meteorological parameters. The easterly trade winds are the main
drivers of ENSO. They pile very warm waters along the western Pacific, but when
they subside, the warm waters spread to the rest of the Pacific causing the
general warming of the El Nino years. El Nino alternate with the La Niña when
the currents are cooler than normal.
El Niño, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is a
weather system lasts for about 12 months on an average. During El Niño the
warming of sea surface temperatures take place, affecting wind patterns and
thus possibly triggering both floods and droughts in different parts of the
world.
During La Niña, just the opposite of El Niño,
less heating leads to colder sea waters off western South America coast, thus
making it a high
pressure zone;
which pushes the moist sea winds towards the Indian Ocean increasing chances of
normal or excessive rainfall in the Indian sub-continent.
The phenomenon El Niño affects rainfall in
India during Monsoon. Due to more heating, warm waters off eastern coast of
South America increase the sea surface temperatures above normal by 0.5oC
and leads to diversion of flow of moist winds from the Indian Ocean towards the
eastern coast of South America. This change in wind pattern reduces the amount
of rainfall in the Indian sub-continent. El Nino is a temporary warming in the
ocean water temperatures in the Pacific off the coast of South America. The
warming changes weather patterns, bringing more rains to some areas and less to
others when it is active. In the case of India, El Nino can lead to drier
weather.
As El Niño and the Indian summer Monsoon are
inversely related the most prominent droughts
in India – six
of them - since 1871 have been El Niño droughts, including the recent ones in
2002 and 2009. It is, however, important to note that not all El Niño years
lead to drought
in India. For
instance, 1997-98 was a strong El Niño year but that did not cause drought in
India. On the other hand, a moderate El Niño in 2002 resulted in one of the
worst droughts in India.
According to Historical data of 126 years
(1880-2005), about 90% of all evolving El Niño years have lead to below normal
rainfall and 65% of evolving El Niño years have brought droughts. However, one
thing is clear that El Niño years do affect the weather in India in terms of
Monsoon rain. During this time, the rainfall is generally below normal, which
has its bearing on crop production.
Current status of El Nino is probably
now ranging between 60-65per cent and most likely it is likely to push towards
winter months- from October to December. There are so many scenarios. El Nino
will not have a major impact on Indian monsoon. El Nino's peak impact will be
in late winter by December.
According to experts factors as innocuous as
the humble grain-carrying sack to the mighty El Nino could have a varying impact on grain production and delivery
this year.
Detailed presentations made at a
recently-concluded 'Global Grain and Feed Forum' conference in Goa suggest that
the occurrence of the El Nino phenomenon in June could to some extent rob India of its monsoon, but also note that poor quality sacks are also a significant
fault-line in the grain-delivery chain, "leading to very high
losses".
Monsoons are winds caused by the temperature
difference between a land mass and the adjacent ocean. Monsoons occur
throughout the world -- parts of Africa, the Arabianpeninsula, Arizona, the
neighboring regions of California and Mexico. But the Indian monsoon -- which
besides India, also affects other regions of south and southeast Asia and
Australia -- is the most monetarily important because of its profound influence
on the economy of India and neighboring countries. It is directly linked to the
ENSO phenomenon. In summer months, temperatures over much of India rise to as
high as 110 degrees Fahrenheit while the Indian Ocean is much cooler.
Consequently, the warm air over the land rises and cooler moisture-bearing air
blows in from the sea, bringing heavy rains to the region.
El Nino may trigger a downside in the
production of soyabean and corn this year. India's projected soya production in
the coming year could be anywhere between 10.2, 9.9 and 8.2 million tonnes in
case of a weak, moderate or strong El Nino. In 2012-13 the country harvested a
soyabean crop of 14.67 million tonnes. Similarly, the downside to corn
production could be 23.1 to 22.5 million tonnes (going from) weak to moderate
(impact) where as production was 25 million tonnes in the previous year. India
last had experienced the phenomenon in 2009 and the Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD) has already predicted below par rainfall this year.
"In six out of last eight El Nino
summers, India had a below normal Indian Monsoon (countrywide average)".
 |
Analysis by the India Meteorological
Department shows that, of the 18 El Nino years between 1880 and 2006, twelve
coincided with deficient or below-normal rainfall in India. This means, for a
third of the time, there was no correlation, and that has resulted in some
spectacularly wrong forecasts for the monsoon. More recent research aimed at
finding a more robust correlation indicates that not all El Ninos cause
drought, and only warming in the central Pacific correlates with drought in
India while warming in the eastern Pacific means a normal monsoon.
During last February it was predicted that 2014
could be an El Niño year, which would trigger a poor Monsoon in India. And as
we enter mid-April, these observations are turning out to be more accurate.
According to a media report, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration has suggested increase in chances of an El Niño weather by over
50%, while the Australian Meteorological Bureau has put it at over 70%. Though,
this system will affect the weather worldwide, countries like India that are
largely dependent on Monsoon rain will bear the maximum brunt of it.
In
view of this here's a look into what is this phenomenon and how is it going to
impact Monsoon in India.
|
Year
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
|
Occurrence
|
El Nino
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
La Nina
|
La Nina
|
El Nino
|
La Nina
|
La Nina
|
Mild
El Nino
|
Neutral
|
|
State
|
Drought
|
Normal
|
Normal
|
Excess
|
Above
normal
|
Severe Drought
|
Normal
|
Normal
|
Below Normal
|
Above
Normal
|
|
Precipitation
|
-12%
|
+1%
|
+3%
|
+10%
|
+5%
|
-21%
|
0%
|
+4%
|
-8%
|
+6%
|
El Niño years directly impact India’s agrarian
economy as their effect tends to lower the production of summer crops such as
rice, sugarcane and oilseeds. This in return causes inflation to surge and
lowers the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). India is the second largest producer
of rice and wheat in the world. Following is a list of droughts taken place in
India in last two centuries. Some of these have been an outcome of the El Niño
phenomenon.
|
Period
|
Drought Years
|
Number of Drought
|
|
1801-1830
|
1801, 1804, 1806,
1812, 1819, 1825
|
6
|
|
1831-1860
|
1832, 1833, 1837,
1853, 1860
|
5
|
|
1861-1890
|
1862, 1866, 1868,
1873, 1877, 1883
|
6
|
|
1891-1920
|
1891, 1897, 1899,
1901, 1904, 1905, 1907, 1911, 1918, 1920
|
10
|
|
1921-1950
|
1939, 1941
|
2
|
|
1951-1980
|
1951, 1965, 1966,
1968, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1979
|
8
|
|
1981-2010
|
1982, 1986, 1987,
2002, 2004, 2009
|
6
|
Monsoon rainfall remains worrying this year. June
rainfall was among the worst in a century and the situation has not improved so
far in July, though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) did not want to
talk about a drought as it needs data for the entire season to reach such a
conclusion. Some prospects of the monsoon strengthening in a week, particularly in the south,
western coastal areas and central India are been observed. However, western
India, where the rainfall deficit was 64per cent, including 92per cent in parts
of Gujarat, remains a worry.
Seasonal deficit of monsoon as of now was
43per cent. The deficit was more in central and western India. It was seen a
low pressure likely to form in Bay of Bengal on July 12 and by July 13th it was
to move north-west ward. It was expected that that would create favourable
conditions for rains up to central India, southern peninsula and west coast. It
was not going to fill deficiency in rainfall in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh and peninsular
states up to Madhya Pradesh. However, in West India - Rajasthan, Haryana,
Punjab and large parts of Gujarat particularly Saurashtra things were not very
promising. So the question arises are India, at least
portion of India, is heading towards a drought?
Drought is a situation which is defined at a
later stage. It's a diagnostic. At this stage none can comment on this except to
talk in terms of rainfall deficit which are open data. How it further develops
it is to see.
There are many droughts- meteorological
drought, agricultural, hydrological drought. If at the end of the season rain
deficiency in a meteorological subdivision or a state is more than 25per cent
then it is moderate drought and if it is more than 50per cent then severe
drought. If in one week rain deficit is high no one can say it is a drought.
Now the question is in the current situation,
what preparation can the country make? What are the steps than need to be
taken?
Indian farmers depend on
the monsoon for production of certain crops like cotton, sugarcane, rice and
others. Delayed or late rains can alter harvests. Monsoon rains last several
months and El Nino was expected to take effect around mid-to-late July and August,
which comes at the height of the growing season. It’s at this time that these
crops are pollinating and setting yields, so drier weather means the potential
for lower yields.
The monsoon is critical for
India’s crop production and rainfall deficits can be very consequential, as it
leads to lower production of especially summer crops and as a result lower GDP
(gross domestic product) growth. As far as farmers are
concerned they are being advised to choose for selecting late sown seed
varieties. Also the varieties which require less water and early maturing are
the buzz word.
Indian farmers depend on the monsoon for production of certain crops like
cotton, sugarcane, rice and others. Delayed or late rains can alter harvests.
Monsoon rains last several months and El Nino effected monsoon around
mid-to-late July and August, which comes at the height of the growing season as
it was the time that crops are pollinating and setting yields, so drier weather
means the potential for lower yields.
The combination of a widening trade deficit
and rising CPI inflation could force India’s central bank to tighten monetary
policy. As a result, the economy might have a pronounced slowdown, as the
tightening monetary policy comes on top of declines in farmers’ income as a
result of production shortfalls. Indian farmers depend on the monsoon for production of certain
crops like cotton, sugarcane, rice and others. Delayed or late rains can alter
harvests. So considering present situation due to the El Niño phenomenon immediate
measures need be taken by the Government to cover low production caused for adverse
weather promoting persons associated with agriculture in favour of alternative
production.
In the
mean time interest rate of bank has been reduced; and apprehension of further
drastic reduction of bank interest has shaken broader section of people. From
past experience one can easily predict low agricultural production due to
climatic phenomena will have long term severe effect in Indian society.
